The Illinois Legislature Failed to Pass Transit Funding. Are We Headed for a Death Spiral?
We can bank on last minute deals in Springfield to save transit, or we can focus on preserving a core network that averts a "death spiral" and provides a sound foundation to rebuild upon.
Late on May 31st, the Illinois legislature adjourned without passing legislation to fund the $771 million operating deficit that Chicagoland transit providers anticipate starting in 2026. The consequences of this decision, as stated by the RTA, are 40% cuts in transit service around the region, with 4 of the 8 CTA rail lines seeing full service suspensions, 74 of the 127 CTA bus routes being suspended, all early morning and late evening Metra trains being suspended and all weekend Pace service being eliminated. Sure there’s still time for special sessions in Springfield and backroom deals to fill this funding gap, but given that we’ve blown past our self-identified “make or break” moment, I think we owe it to ourselves to consider what it could look like if this funding truly doesn’t come through. How do we strategically scale down one of the nation’s largest transit systems without sending it into the dreaded death spiral?
Death Spiral (v) - Transit (informal). A pattern of decline for transit authorities where reduced fare revenue requires transit authorities to reduce service or increase fares to cover the costs. This reduced service makes transit less useful, which makes less people ride, which further reduces fare revenue. Basically, it’s a race to the bottom.
Blanket cuts across the system all but guarantee a death spiral. However, strategic cuts that maintain a core network and align with how people are already using the system could provide a path to weather this storm and establish a solid foundation to rebuild upon. Let’s see what this could look like for the CTA1.
Operating Expenses and Ridership at the CTA
According to 2023 data submitted by CTA to the National Transit Database, CTA spent nearly $1.7B to operate its network of buses and trains. Of this $1.7B, about 43% went to rail operations, with the remaining 57% going to bus operations. Notably, ridership followed a similar distribution, with 42% of ridership coming from the rail network and 58% coming from the bus network. With this ridership balance in mind, my next recommendation probably sounds taboo, but I think it’s necessary to avert a death spiral.
If we need to scale the system down, we should leave the rail system intact.
When we reach a point where funding stability means we can begin rebuilding the system, the rail network provides a strong foundation to rebuild upon. If we don’t touch the rail network, assuming a 40% reduction in overall budget (60% remaining), that leaves 17% for bus operations. I’m not going to pretend that reducing bus service from 57% of the operating budget to 17% wont be painless. Thankfully, the CTA bus network is structured in a way that allows for scaling without significant reductions in coverage.
The CTA Key Bus Network
The CTA operates a network of ~130 bus routes in and around Chicago. Because Chicago is one of the most gridded cities in the world, this network provides a remarkable level of coverage.
Within this network, there are a subset of routes identified as “Key Routes”. The CTA Key Routes are shown below,
Notably, despite making up about 1/3 of the CTA bus network, the key network carries about 2/3 of all bus ridership. Nine of the 10 busiest bus routes in September 2024 were key routes. Even better still, since the city has a near perfect grid, the key route network still maintains a high level of coverage. From the CTA service standards document:
The Key Route bus network was established to ensure that customers across the more densely populated parts of the service area with high transit usage can readily access bus routes meeting more stringent frequency standards.
Routes in the Key Route network are typically spaced one mile apart, which allows for approximately a 1/2-mile journey to reach a route in this network.
The vehicle headway standard for the Key Route bus network is to operate at least every 10 minutes during the weekday peak periods, 15 minutes during the weekday midday period, 20 minutes during the weekday evening period, 15 minutes on Saturday afternoons and 20 minutes on Sunday afternoons.
If we’re forced to make decisions about how to scale down the system, the Key Network should drive these decision.
Put more bluntly, we should prioritize maintaining the key route network before preserving other route with less impact from a systemwide perspective.
The 37 Sedgwick is neat, but not neat enough to justify its existence when we’re forced to make tough decisions2. Fortunately, it appears CTA is already heading in this direction. All of the 20 routes announced as part of CTA’s new 10 min or better, Frequent Network are key routes.
So What Now?
Chicagoland Transit is at a crossroads. Calls to #SaveTransitNow have seemingly fallen upon deaf ears in the Illinois legislature. With 40% service cuts looming in the near future, we can sit on our laurels and bank on last minute dealmaking to fill the gap, or we can push to ensure that if these cuts do become reality, they are done in a way that reduces the likelihood and severity of a death spiral, and builds the strongest foundation to rebuild upon when more funding becomes available. This means preserving the rail network, and prioritizing the Key Bus Network.
We already know that 1/3 of CTA bus routes carry over 2/3 of systemwide bus ridership. Let’s make sure the routes that the most Chicagoans encounter represent Good Transit. That means:
Ensuring these routes are fully and reliably staffed
Ensuring buses move quickly on these routes. The Better Streets for Buses plan developed a toolbox of transit priority treatments to be used throughout the CTA network to speed up buses
Actually enforce the transit priority treatments that currently exist (Check out any bus lane outside of the loop during rush hour if you’re bored)
Space bus stops appropriately (every 1/4 mile) on these routes. The CTA service standard sets the minimum spacing at every 1/8 mile
Support higher density, walkable developments with reduced (or eliminated) onsite parking along these routes. The Connected Communities Ordinance passed in 2022 provides more latitude for this type of development.
Chicago is a world class city. It deserves world class transit. If we can weather this storm, I still think that vision can be realized.
Since Metra and Pace already run more limited schedules that the CTA, their path is more unclear
I don’t have any beef with the Sedgwick bus, I just chose it as an illustrative example. I actually take the 37 with some regularity.